Don’t look now, but only the Dodgers have a better chance of winning the World Series than the Yankees this season.
At least, that’s according to Fangraphs, which a year ago at this time had the Braves as runaway favorites to win it all last October, only to see 104-win Atlanta flame out in the NLDS against the 90-win Phillies.
The playoffs can be like that, but the Yankees have at least put themselves in the mix, having won seven of their last eight games since the ugly loss in Boston on July 26.
At that point, Baltimore was considered the favorite to win the AL East, but improved play and a relatively easy schedule have worked in the Yankees’ favor.
Now, the Yankees have a 58.9 percent chance of winning the division, compared to Baltimore’s 40.3 percent.
And with the Angels coming to The Bronx on Tuesday, followed by the Rangers — who don’t look like a threat to challenge for a second straight World Series title — and then trips to face the historically bad White Sox and then Detroit, the Yankees are in the midst of a 15-game stretch in which they don’t play a team over .500.
Besides doing what they are supposed to do against rotten competition, what else has to go right for the Yankees to hold off the Orioles to win the AL East and be a real threat in the postseason?
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have to stay healthy
As the Yankees desperately look for protection for Judge, who got the Barry Bonds treatment — or, as Aaron Boone called it, the Aaron Judge treatment — from Toronto this past weekend, they continue to be very reliant on their two stars.
Judge’s toe injury a year ago ended any hopes of a second half comeback and this year, Soto has been playing with a bruised right hand that he aggravated Sunday.
The Yankees still haven’t found ideal bookends for Soto hitting second and Judge third, and if they don’t, Judge will likely see even fewer pitches.
Gerrit Cole has to be an ace
The Yankees breathed a collective sigh of relief Sunday after Cole’s solid outing against Toronto, following his scratch in Philadelphia.
But Cole still hasn’t approached the effectiveness — let alone dominance — he showed over the past six seasons.
He’s giving up more hits and home runs than at any point during that stretch and isn’t getting as many strikeouts.
Can Gleyber Torres and/or DJ LeMahieu bounce back?
Torres had a good bounce-back year last season and LeMahieu had a decent second half.
Both seem like a long time ago, as they continue to struggle.
It remains to be seen what kind of impact, if any, Aaron Boone’s in-game benching of Torres has and LeMahieu has had a solid week at the plate after months of looking lost.
Can Clay Holmes straighten himself out?
He’s got six blown saves in his last 17 appearances after blowing just three in his first 30 games.
Opposing batters have an .820 OPS against the closer over that same 17-game span, compared to a .581 OPS in those opening 30 games.
The Yankees continue to say he’s pitching into tough luck and many of the advanced metrics back that up, but the results have not been good of late.
