Even with the Jets’ season essentially ending when Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on the fourth snap in Week 1 last season, the AFC East still managed to send two teams to the postseason.
Now, Rodgers is back with the Jets, and the Bills and Dolphins hope to build off successful seasons. The Patriots, meanwhile, appear to be in the midst of a complete rebuild.
Check out our AFC East preview and best bet, with current win totals and odds via DraftKings.
Bills: 10.5 wins (+130/-155)
The Bills have finished first in the division in each of the past four years.
However, they have had heartbreak after heartbreak in the playoffs, and their path to the Super Bowl won’t get any easier this season.
Buffalo lost some key talent this offseason, including wide receivers Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs.
Adding Chase Claypool, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the wide receiver room will keep the offense afloat, but don’t be surprised if they struggle at the beginning of the season on that side of the ball.
Dolphins: 9.5 wins (-135/+115)
Even though the Dolphins were steamrolled in the playoffs at Arrowhead last season, it’s hard to label their season (11-6) as anything other than an overall success.
Tua Tagovailoa threw for the most yards of any NFL quarterback, while also finishing third in completion percentage among quarterbacks who played at least 16 games.
Tagovailoa was terrific, but it certainly helps to have Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Odell Beckham Jr. as targets. The health of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, two of the fastest running backs in the NFL, will be paramount.
The Dolphins’ most prominent question marks will be their ability to stay healthy and whether or not their defensive replacements for Christian Wilkins and Xavien Howard can bridge the gap.
Jets: 9.5 wins (-150/+125)
Though the Jets should be substantially better with the return of Rodgers, that does not mean the offense will hit its ceiling.
Between Rodgers’ minicamp absence and the fact that he is unlikely to appear in any preseason games, it is to be determined whether or not he will have an appropriate amount of chemistry with his offensive weapons.
Still, the Jets’ defense, led by cornerback Sauce Gardner, will be one of the top units in the league and can help the offense overcome a potentially slow start to the season.
Patriots: 4.5 wins (-150/+125)
After logging just four wins last year during the worst season of Bill Belichick’s career, the Patriots parted ways with their future Hall of Fame coach. Jerod Mayo has a tough act to follow.
After hiring Mayo as head coach, finding a quarterback was prioritized. Last season, the Patriots had horrendous quarterback play, partly due to personnel but also a product of a morbidly poor roster.
New England traded Mac Jones to Jacksonville in March and snagged North Carolina’s Drake Maye in the draft. However, Maye might not have much help since the team parted ways with WR DeVante Parker and TE Mike Gesicki this offseason. Expect another rough season ahead.
AFC East best bet
If the Jets can win seven games with Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle under center, they certainly can string together 10 wins with Rodgers at the helm.
Rodgers threw an uncharacteristic 12 interceptions in 2022, but historically, he is extraordinarily efficient and turnover-averse. In fact, he had not thrown more than eight interceptions since the 2010 season before his last year with the Packers, who had significant wide receiver issues at the time.
Between a likely regression by the Bills, a high-octane offense and an overpowering defensive unit that will inevitably get more rest this season, the Jets should easily win 11 or 12 games.
Recommendation: Jets over 9.5 wins (-150, DraftKings).
